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Anthropogenic Global Warming- Your thoughts please
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quote:
Originally posted by johnny:
(CNSNews.com) – Dr. Don Easterbrook – a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State who correctly predicted back in 2000 that the Earth was entering a cooling phase – says to expect colder temperatures for at least the next two decades.

Easterbrook’s predictions were “right on the money” seven years before Al Gore and the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for warning that the Earth was facing catastrophic warming caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide, which Gore called a “planetary emergency.”

“When we check their projections against what actually happened in that time interval, they’re not even close. They’re off by a full degree in one decade, which is huge. That’s more than the entire amount of warming we’ve had in the past century. So their models have failed just miserably, nowhere near close. And maybe it’s luck, who knows, but mine have been right on the button,” Easterbrook told CNSNews.com.

“For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC,” said Easterbrook, professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University and author of 150 scientific journal articles and 10 books, including “Evidence Based Climate Science,” which was published in 2011. (See http://www.cnsnews.com/sites/d...tury-predictions.pdf)

In contrast, Gore and the IPCC’s computer models predicted “a big increase” in global warming by as much as one degree per decade. But the climate models used by the IPCC have proved to be wrong, with many places in Europe and North America now experiencing record-breaking cold.

Easterbrook noted that his 20-year prediction was the “mildest” one of four possible scenarios, all of which involve lower temperatures, and added that only time will tell whether the Earth continues to cool slightly or plunges into another Little Ice Age as it did between 1650 and 1790.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...t-right/#more-102688



he's no climate scientist

Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality

Don Easterbrook

quote:
Other members of the geology department at WWU, however, have criticized, and attempted to distance themselves from, his views after Easterbrook testified before the Washington State Senate Energy, Environment and Telecommunications Committee that carbon dioxide could not cause global warming.[4]




21 years off the grid and counting

 
Location: Muskoka, Ont, Can | Registered: March 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Argumentum ad Hominem (abusive and circumstantial): the fallacy of attacking the character or circumstances of an individual who is advancing a statement or an argument instead of trying to disprove the truth of the statement or the soundness of the argument. Often the argument is characterized simply as a personal attack.

The personal attack is also often termed an "ad personem argument": the statement or argument at issue is dropped from consideration or is ignored, and the locutor's character or circumstances are used to influence opinion.

The fallacy draws its appeal from the technique of "getting personal." The assumption is that what the locutor is saying is entirely or partially dictated by his character or special circumstances and so should be disregarded.

The irony of ad Hominem arguments is how they always do more to erode the credibility of the person using them, rather than the person they're attacking.



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Figure 42. Projected climate for the century based on climatic patterns over the past 500 years and the switch of the PDO to its cool phase.



The left side of Figure 42 is the warming/cooling history of the past century. The right side of the graph shows that we have entered a global cooling phase that fits the historic pattern very well.

Three possible projections are shown:
(1)moderate cooling (similar to the 1945 to 1977 cooling);
(2) deeper cooling (similar to the 1945 to 1977 cooling); or
(3) severe cooling (similar to the 1790 to 1830 cooling).

Only time will tell which of these will be the case, but at the moment, the sun is behaving very similar to the Dalton Minimum (sunspot cycle 4/5, which was a very cold time. This is based on the similarity of sun spot cycle 23 to cycle 4 (which immediately preceded the Dalton Minimum).

We live in a most interesting time. As the global climate and solar variation reveals themselves in a way not seen in the past 200 years, we will surely attain a much better understanding of what causes global warming and cooling. Time will tell. If the climate continues its deepening cooling and the sun behaves in a manner not witnessed since 1800, we can be sure that climate changes are dominated by the sun and that atmospheric CO2 has a very small role in climate changes.

If the same climatic patterns, cyclic warming and cooling, that occurred over the past 500 years continue, we can expect several decades of global cooling, followed by continued decadal cycles of global warming and cooling.

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/cl...cations-climate.html



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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There is a fine example from earlier in the thread of the most insidious sort of ad hominem attack.


quote:
Originally posted by john galt:
quote:
Michael Mann, like Joe Paterno (and to a lesser degree, Jerry Sandusky) was a rock star in the context of Penn State University, bringing in millions in research funding. The same university president who resigned in the wake of the Sandusky scandal was also the president when Mann was being whitewashed investigated. We saw what the university administration was willing to do to cover up heinous crimes, and even let them continue, rather than expose them. Should we suppose, in light of what we now know, they would do any less to hide academic and scientific misconduct, with so much at stake?

http://www.openmarket.org/2012...l-in-unhappy-valley/
 
Location: SW Oregon | Registered: December 15, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Is it colder or warmer than 'normal'? Here, see for yourself, just click on the links

Canada/NU/Resolute

Canada/YT/Snag

USA/ND/Fargo

USA/TX/Amarillo
note that it's colder than it's been in the past 50 years

USA/FL/Key_Largo

Peru/Cusco

Chile/Punta_Arenas


The data set is from the 1950s to present, which covers most of the lives of our readers. Over your lifetime has it become warmer or colder than the average of the past 50 years? The shading on the temperature plot shows the range of temperatures historically and their probability.

You can easily see for your own location. Think for yourself, draw your own conclusions.

We can lead people to knowledge, but we can't make them think.



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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We can provide tools for people to use, mastering them is the individuals responsibility.
Any misconceptions they derive from misuse and misinterpretation is also their responsibility.


The excerpt from Easterbrook's paper posted above is at the link provided and
http://www.cnsnews.com/sites/d...tury-predictions.pdf
Any questions should of course be directed to the author Easterbrook at the link provided.
Google is your friend.
cheers



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Ancient forests stabilized Earth’s CO2 and climate
Date:January 23, 2014
Source:European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Summary:
Researchers have identified a biological mechanism that could explain how the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate were stabilized over the past 24 million years. When CO2 levels became too low for plants to grow properly, forests appear to have kept the climate in check by slowing down the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

UK researchers have identified a biological mechanism that could explain how the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate were stabilised over the past 24 million years. When CO2 levels became too low for plants to grow properly, forests appear to have kept the climate in check by slowing down the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The results are now published in Biogeosciences, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

“As CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere fall, the Earth loses its greenhouse effect, which can lead to glacial conditions,” explains lead-author Joe Quirk from the University of Sheffield. “Over the last 24 million years, the geologic conditions were such that atmospheric CO2 could have fallen to very low levels – but it did not drop below a minimum concentration of about 180 to 200 parts per million. Why?”

Before fossil fuels, natural processes kept atmospheric carbon dioxide in check. Volcanic eruptions, for example, release CO2, while weathering on the continents removes it from the atmosphere over millions of years. Weathering is the breakdown of minerals within rocks and soils, many of which include silicates. Silicate minerals weather in contact with carbonic acid (rain and atmospheric CO2) in a process that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Further, the products of these reactions are transported to the oceans in rivers where they ultimately form carbonate rocks like limestone that lock away carbon on the seafloor for millions of years, preventing it from forming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Forests increase weathering rates because trees, and the fungi associated with their roots, break down rocks and minerals in the soil to get nutrients for growth. The Sheffield team found that when the CO2 concentration was low – at about 200 parts per million (ppm) – trees and fungi were far less effective at breaking down silicate minerals, which could have reduced the rate of CO2 removal from the atmosphere.

“We recreated past environmental conditions by growing trees at low, present-day and high levels of CO2 in controlled-environment growth chambers,” says Quirk. “We used high-resolution digital imaging techniques to map the surfaces of mineral grains and assess how they were broken down and weathered by the fungi associated with the roots of the trees.”

As reported in Biogeosciences, the researchers found that low atmospheric CO2 acts as a ‘carbon starvation’ brake. When the concentration of carbon dioxide falls from 1500 ppm to 200 ppm, weathering rates drop by a third, diminishing the capacity of forests to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

The weathering rates by trees and fungi drop because low CO2 reduces plants’ ability to perform photosynthesis, meaning less carbon-energy is supplied to the roots and their fungi. This, in turn, means there is less nutrient uptake from minerals in the soil, which slows down weathering rates over millions of years.

“The last 24 million years saw significant mountain building in the Andes and Himalayas, which increased the amount of silicate rocks and minerals on the land that could be weathered over time. This increased weathering of silicate rocks in certain parts of the world is likely to have caused global CO2 levels to fall,” Quirk explains. But the concentration of CO2 never fell below 180-200 ppm because trees and fungi broke down minerals at low rates at those concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

“It is important that we understand the processes that affect and regulate climates of the past and our study makes an important step forward in understanding how Earth’s complex plant life has regulated and modified the climate we know on Earth today,” concludes Quirk.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by European Geosciences Union (EGU). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

J. Quirk, J. R. Leake, S. A. Banwart, L. L. Taylor, D. J. Beerling. Weathering by tree root-associating fungi diminishes under simulated Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 decline. Biogeosciences Discussions, 2013; 10 (10): 15779 DOI: 10.5194/bgd-10-15779-2013


Note: At this point in earth's history atmospheric CO2 concentrations are near their lowest, just above the 180 to 200 parts per million level plants need to survive.



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Tree roots in the mountains 'acted like a thermostat' for millions of years
http://www.sciencedaily.com/re.../02/140205210436.htm
Date: February 5, 2014
Source:University of Oxford
Summary:
For the first time, scientists have discovered how tree roots in the mountains may play an important role in controlling long-term global temperatures. Researchers have found that temperatures affect the thickness of the leaf litter and organic soil layers, as well as the rate at which the tree roots grow. In a warmer world, this means that tree roots are more likely to grow into the mineral layer of the soil, breaking down rock into component parts which will eventually combine with carbon dioxide. This process, called weathering, draws carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and cools the planet. The theory suggests that mountainous ecosystems have acted like Earth's thermostat, addressing the risk of 'catastrophic' overheating or cooling over millions of years.



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Nothing but global warming would be capable of doing this?



http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...th-snow/#more-102819



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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There must be something meaningful in the charts....
yes, but one needs a science, engineering or technical background to understand those important details.

Those who don't understand the charts need not worry, it doesn't concern them... they already have enough trouble understanding their own greenwashed pseudo-technical propaganda, so this is way beyond their comprehension.



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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Ronny, that is a great chart! Note how as you increase the period of the measurement the trendline gets flatter, and flatter, until you reach a measurement period that is actually representative and you would get something like this one...



Where a trendline would be basically flat at about -3C.
 
Location: Southern WI, USA | Registered: May 18, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Lake Superior sets a new record for winter ice cover, other lakes are icing up fast.

Lake Superior is 92 percent frozen on the surface, breaking a 20-year-old record of 91 percent set on Feb. 5, 1994. Temperatures continue well below freezing.



 
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Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Pacific Trade Winds Stall Global Surface Warming ... for Now

Feb. 9, 2014 — The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans. But when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures, researchers report.


Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.

New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface.

"Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear" said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal -- as it inevitably will -- our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds began during the 1990s and continues today. Previously, no climate models have incorporated a trade wind strengthening of the magnitude observed, and these models failed to capture the hiatus in warming. Once the trade winds were added by the researchers, the global average temperatures very closely resembled the observations during the hiatus.

"The winds lead to extra ocean heat uptake, which stalled warming of the atmosphere. Accounting for this wind intensification in model projections produces a hiatus in global warming that is in striking agreement with observations," Prof England said.

"Unfortunately, however, when the hiatus ends, global warming looks set to be rapid."

The impact of the trade winds on global average temperatures is caused by the winds forcing heat to accumulate below surface of the Western Pacific Ocean.

"This pumping of heat into the ocean is not very deep, however, and once the winds abate, heat is returned rapidly to the atmosphere" England explains.

"Climate scientists have long understood that global average temperatures don't rise in a continual upward trajectory, instead warming in a series of abrupt steps in between periods with more-or-less steady temperatures. Our work helps explain how this occurs," said Prof England.

"We should be very clear: the current hiatus offers no comfort -- we are just seeing another pause in warming before the next inevitable rise in global temperatures."


21 years off the grid and counting

 
Location: Muskoka, Ont, Can | Registered: March 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I’m a professional infrared astronomer who spent his life trying to observe space through the atmosphere’s back-radiation that the environmental activists claim is caused by CO2 and guess what? In all the bands that are responsible for back radiation in the brightness temperatures (color temperatures) related to earth’s surface temperature (between 9 microns and 13 microns for temps of 220K to 320 K) there is no absorption of radiation by CO2 at all. In all the bands between 9 and 9.5 there is mild absorption by H2O, from 9.5 to 10 microns (300 K) the atmosphere is perfectly clear except around 9.6 is a big ozone band that the warmists never mention for some reason. From 10 to 13 microns there is more absorption by H2O. Starting at 13 we get CO2 absorption but that wavelength corresponds to temperatures below even that of the south pole. Nowhere from 9 to 13 microns do we see appreciable absorption bands of CO2. This means the greenhouse effect is way over 95% caused by water vapor and probably less than 3% from CO2.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress...pid-and-not-the-co2/



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by john galt:
quote:
I’m a professional infrared astronomer who spent his life trying to observe space through the atmosphere’s back-radiation that the environmental activists claim is caused by CO2 and guess what? In all the bands that are responsible for back radiation in the brightness temperatures (color temperatures) related to earth’s surface temperature (between 9 microns and 13 microns for temps of 220K to 320 K) there is no absorption of radiation by CO2 at all. In all the bands between 9 and 9.5 there is mild absorption by H2O, from 9.5 to 10 microns (300 K) the atmosphere is perfectly clear except around 9.6 is a big ozone band that the warmists never mention for some reason. From 10 to 13 microns there is more absorption by H2O. Starting at 13 we get CO2 absorption but that wavelength corresponds to temperatures below even that of the south pole. Nowhere from 9 to 13 microns do we see appreciable absorption bands of CO2. This means the greenhouse effect is way over 95% caused by water vapor and probably less than 3% from CO2.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress...pid-and-not-the-co2/


Steven Goddard doesn't exist it's a made up name


21 years off the grid and counting

 
Location: Muskoka, Ont, Can | Registered: March 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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"Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s.” - IPCC AR5 Chapter 10



 
Location: coldest N.America | Registered: May 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thank goodness for AGW, otherwise this could be seriously cold.

After months of cold, Great Lakes become nearly covered with ice for the first time since 1994
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/great...-time-060805820.html
The Canadian Press
By John Flesher, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press


Cold weather slams U.S. factory output, likely to hurt growth

LiveScience.com : Winter storm buries parts of northeast; death toll at 20


CHEBOYGAN, Mich. - From the bridge of the Coast Guard cutter Mackinaw, northern Lake Huron looks like a vast, snow-covered field dotted with ice slabs as big as boulders — a battleground for the icebreaker's 58-member crew during one of the roughest winters in memory.

It's been so bitterly cold for so long in the Upper Midwest that the Great Lakes are almost completely covered with ice. The last time they came this close was in 1994, when 94 per cent of the lakes' surface was frozen.

As of Friday, ice cover extended across 88 per cent, according to the federal government's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.



 
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