he's no climate scientist
Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
21 years off the grid and counting
Argumentum ad Hominem (abusive and circumstantial): the fallacy of attacking the character or circumstances of an individual who is advancing a statement or an argument instead of trying to disprove the truth of the statement or the soundness of the argument. Often the argument is characterized simply as a personal attack.
The personal attack is also often termed an "ad personem argument": the statement or argument at issue is dropped from consideration or is ignored, and the locutor's character or circumstances are used to influence opinion.
The fallacy draws its appeal from the technique of "getting personal." The assumption is that what the locutor is saying is entirely or partially dictated by his character or special circumstances and so should be disregarded.
The irony of ad Hominem arguments is how they always do more to erode the credibility of the person using them, rather than the person they're attacking.
Figure 42. Projected climate for the century based on climatic patterns over the past 500 years and the switch of the PDO to its cool phase.
The left side of Figure 42 is the warming/cooling history of the past century. The right side of the graph shows that we have entered a global cooling phase that fits the historic pattern very well.
Three possible projections are shown:
(1)moderate cooling (similar to the 1945 to 1977 cooling);
(2) deeper cooling (similar to the 1945 to 1977 cooling); or
(3) severe cooling (similar to the 1790 to 1830 cooling).
Only time will tell which of these will be the case, but at the moment, the sun is behaving very similar to the Dalton Minimum (sunspot cycle 4/5, which was a very cold time. This is based on the similarity of sun spot cycle 23 to cycle 4 (which immediately preceded the Dalton Minimum).
We live in a most interesting time. As the global climate and solar variation reveals themselves in a way not seen in the past 200 years, we will surely attain a much better understanding of what causes global warming and cooling. Time will tell. If the climate continues its deepening cooling and the sun behaves in a manner not witnessed since 1800, we can be sure that climate changes are dominated by the sun and that atmospheric CO2 has a very small role in climate changes.
If the same climatic patterns, cyclic warming and cooling, that occurred over the past 500 years continue, we can expect several decades of global cooling, followed by continued decadal cycles of global warming and cooling.
There is a fine example from earlier in the thread of the most insidious sort of ad hominem attack.
Is it colder or warmer than 'normal'? Here, see for yourself, just click on the links
note that it's colder than it's been in the past 50 years
The data set is from the 1950s to present, which covers most of the lives of our readers. Over your lifetime has it become warmer or colder than the average of the past 50 years? The shading on the temperature plot shows the range of temperatures historically and their probability.
You can easily see for your own location. Think for yourself, draw your own conclusions.
We can lead people to knowledge, but we can't make them think.
We can provide tools for people to use, mastering them is the individuals responsibility.
Any misconceptions they derive from misuse and misinterpretation is also their responsibility.
The excerpt from Easterbrook's paper posted above is at the link provided and
Any questions should of course be directed to the author Easterbrook at the link provided.
Google is your friend.
Ancient forests stabilized Earth’s CO2 and climate
Date:January 23, 2014
Source:European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Researchers have identified a biological mechanism that could explain how the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate were stabilized over the past 24 million years. When CO2 levels became too low for plants to grow properly, forests appear to have kept the climate in check by slowing down the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
UK researchers have identified a biological mechanism that could explain how the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate were stabilised over the past 24 million years. When CO2 levels became too low for plants to grow properly, forests appear to have kept the climate in check by slowing down the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The results are now published in Biogeosciences, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).
“As CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere fall, the Earth loses its greenhouse effect, which can lead to glacial conditions,” explains lead-author Joe Quirk from the University of Sheffield. “Over the last 24 million years, the geologic conditions were such that atmospheric CO2 could have fallen to very low levels – but it did not drop below a minimum concentration of about 180 to 200 parts per million. Why?”
Before fossil fuels, natural processes kept atmospheric carbon dioxide in check. Volcanic eruptions, for example, release CO2, while weathering on the continents removes it from the atmosphere over millions of years. Weathering is the breakdown of minerals within rocks and soils, many of which include silicates. Silicate minerals weather in contact with carbonic acid (rain and atmospheric CO2) in a process that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Further, the products of these reactions are transported to the oceans in rivers where they ultimately form carbonate rocks like limestone that lock away carbon on the seafloor for millions of years, preventing it from forming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Forests increase weathering rates because trees, and the fungi associated with their roots, break down rocks and minerals in the soil to get nutrients for growth. The Sheffield team found that when the CO2 concentration was low – at about 200 parts per million (ppm) – trees and fungi were far less effective at breaking down silicate minerals, which could have reduced the rate of CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
“We recreated past environmental conditions by growing trees at low, present-day and high levels of CO2 in controlled-environment growth chambers,” says Quirk. “We used high-resolution digital imaging techniques to map the surfaces of mineral grains and assess how they were broken down and weathered by the fungi associated with the roots of the trees.”
As reported in Biogeosciences, the researchers found that low atmospheric CO2 acts as a ‘carbon starvation’ brake. When the concentration of carbon dioxide falls from 1500 ppm to 200 ppm, weathering rates drop by a third, diminishing the capacity of forests to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
The weathering rates by trees and fungi drop because low CO2 reduces plants’ ability to perform photosynthesis, meaning less carbon-energy is supplied to the roots and their fungi. This, in turn, means there is less nutrient uptake from minerals in the soil, which slows down weathering rates over millions of years.
“The last 24 million years saw significant mountain building in the Andes and Himalayas, which increased the amount of silicate rocks and minerals on the land that could be weathered over time. This increased weathering of silicate rocks in certain parts of the world is likely to have caused global CO2 levels to fall,” Quirk explains. But the concentration of CO2 never fell below 180-200 ppm because trees and fungi broke down minerals at low rates at those concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
“It is important that we understand the processes that affect and regulate climates of the past and our study makes an important step forward in understanding how Earth’s complex plant life has regulated and modified the climate we know on Earth today,” concludes Quirk.
The above story is based on materials provided by European Geosciences Union (EGU). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
J. Quirk, J. R. Leake, S. A. Banwart, L. L. Taylor, D. J. Beerling. Weathering by tree root-associating fungi diminishes under simulated Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 decline. Biogeosciences Discussions, 2013; 10 (10): 15779 DOI: 10.5194/bgd-10-15779-2013
Note: At this point in earth's history atmospheric CO2 concentrations are near their lowest, just above the 180 to 200 parts per million level plants need to survive.
Tree roots in the mountains 'acted like a thermostat' for millions of years
Date: February 5, 2014
Source:University of Oxford
For the first time, scientists have discovered how tree roots in the mountains may play an important role in controlling long-term global temperatures. Researchers have found that temperatures affect the thickness of the leaf litter and organic soil layers, as well as the rate at which the tree roots grow. In a warmer world, this means that tree roots are more likely to grow into the mineral layer of the soil, breaking down rock into component parts which will eventually combine with carbon dioxide. This process, called weathering, draws carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and cools the planet. The theory suggests that mountainous ecosystems have acted like Earth's thermostat, addressing the risk of 'catastrophic' overheating or cooling over millions of years.
Nothing but global warming would be capable of doing this?
yes, but one needs a science, engineering or technical background to understand those important details.
Those who don't understand the charts need not worry, it doesn't concern them... they already have enough trouble understanding their own greenwashed pseudo-technical propaganda, so this is way beyond their comprehension.
Ronny, that is a great chart! Note how as you increase the period of the measurement the trendline gets flatter, and flatter, until you reach a measurement period that is actually representative and you would get something like this one...
Where a trendline would be basically flat at about -3C.
Lake Superior sets a new record for winter ice cover, other lakes are icing up fast.
Lake Superior is 92 percent frozen on the surface, breaking a 20-year-old record of 91 percent set on Feb. 5, 1994. Temperatures continue well below freezing.
Pacific Trade Winds Stall Global Surface Warming ... for Now
Feb. 9, 2014 — The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans. But when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures, researchers report.
Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.
New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface.
"Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear" said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal -- as it inevitably will -- our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."
The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds began during the 1990s and continues today. Previously, no climate models have incorporated a trade wind strengthening of the magnitude observed, and these models failed to capture the hiatus in warming. Once the trade winds were added by the researchers, the global average temperatures very closely resembled the observations during the hiatus.
"The winds lead to extra ocean heat uptake, which stalled warming of the atmosphere. Accounting for this wind intensification in model projections produces a hiatus in global warming that is in striking agreement with observations," Prof England said.
"Unfortunately, however, when the hiatus ends, global warming looks set to be rapid."
The impact of the trade winds on global average temperatures is caused by the winds forcing heat to accumulate below surface of the Western Pacific Ocean.
"This pumping of heat into the ocean is not very deep, however, and once the winds abate, heat is returned rapidly to the atmosphere" England explains.
"Climate scientists have long understood that global average temperatures don't rise in a continual upward trajectory, instead warming in a series of abrupt steps in between periods with more-or-less steady temperatures. Our work helps explain how this occurs," said Prof England.
"We should be very clear: the current hiatus offers no comfort -- we are just seeing another pause in warming before the next inevitable rise in global temperatures."
21 years off the grid and counting
Steven Goddard doesn't exist it's a made up name
21 years off the grid and counting
"Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s.” - IPCC AR5 Chapter 10
Thank goodness for AGW, otherwise this could be seriously cold.
After months of cold, Great Lakes become nearly covered with ice for the first time since 1994
The Canadian Press
By John Flesher, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press
Cold weather slams U.S. factory output, likely to hurt growth
LiveScience.com : Winter storm buries parts of northeast; death toll at 20
CHEBOYGAN, Mich. - From the bridge of the Coast Guard cutter Mackinaw, northern Lake Huron looks like a vast, snow-covered field dotted with ice slabs as big as boulders — a battleground for the icebreaker's 58-member crew during one of the roughest winters in memory.
It's been so bitterly cold for so long in the Upper Midwest that the Great Lakes are almost completely covered with ice. The last time they came this close was in 1994, when 94 per cent of the lakes' surface was frozen.
As of Friday, ice cover extended across 88 per cent, according to the federal government's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.
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